SpaceX hasn't even filed its public prospectus yet. And investors are already asking about the next deal.
Analysts, investors, and close Musk observers are openly debating a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
It would be the largest corporate merger in history — by a wide margin.
SpaceX is targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion for its upcoming IPO. Tesla's current market cap sits around $1.1 trillion. A combined entity would be worth nearly $2.9 trillion — more valuable than every U.S. company except Apple and Nvidia.
What's driving the speculation?
Musk has been deliberately connecting his companies. He recently announced two joint ventures: a shared chip factory called Terafab in Austin, Texas, and an AI software agent called Digital Optimus that works across Tesla and xAI's development teams. He's also argued that Tesla's robotics and autonomous car ambitions depend on SpaceX's planned space-based AI data centers.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy put it plainly in February: "The main investor question we have received is whether Elon eventually plans to combine Tesla with SpaceX, thus forming a broader 'Elon Inc.'"
Here's why it won't happen anytime soon.
Regulatory approval alone would take well over a year. A deal combining two companies worth a combined $2.9 trillion would face intense antitrust scrutiny — even if Tesla and SpaceX aren't direct competitors.
A transaction would require shareholder approval from Tesla investors, adding another layer of time and complexity.
When SpaceX merged with xAI, Musk moved quickly because he controlled both private companies. Tesla is different. He holds a smaller stake, and public shareholders have a vote.
Bottom line: a SpaceX-Tesla merger is off the table until after SpaceX goes public — and realistically, well after that.
The actual story right now is the SpaceX IPO.
The confidential filing is done. The roadshow launches the week of June 8. The Nasdaq debut is on track for late June or early July. At $1.75 trillion, it will be the largest IPO in history.
That's where my focus is. The merger debate is interesting — but it's a 2027 conversation at the earliest.
Ian Wyatt
Editor, IPO Watch