Anthropic could IPO at a $3 trillion valuation, according to one Silicon Valley Insider. Yet the latest private market valuation is just $965 billion.
That suggests roughly 210% upside between the recent price – and the Nasdaq IPO. And that’s why I’m securing a Pre-IPO stake today.
Go here to get the details – before the confidential SEC filing is public.
SpaceX just reported its first quarter as a public company.
The numbers beat every project. Yet the stock fell anyway.
Revenue: $7.8 billion vs. $6.9 billion expected, up 92%
Loss per share: 9 cents vs. 26 cents expected
Adjusted EBITDA: $3.5 billion vs. roughly $2 billion expected, up 191%
SPCX stock closed at $125, then traded near $115 after hours
All three segments beat. Starlink connectivity did $4.3 billion and $1.7 billion of operating income. Starlink now has 12 million subscribers, double a year ago, and added a record 1.7 million in the quarter while holding revenue per user flat at $66 a month. Backlog stands at $47.5 billion.
Want to invest in Anthropic before IPO day? Simply check it out here.
SpaceX spent $18.4 billion in three months. $15.8 billion of that spending went into AI compute.
Against $3.5 billion of EBITDA, that works out to roughly negative $15 billion of free cash flow in a single quarter. CFO Bret Johnsen told analysts the next two quarters will be similar.
Investors have stopped rewarding AI spending that hasn't turned into cash flow. SpaceX is spending more money, faster than anyone modeled. And the stock is being punished as a result.
Here's what most people are still missing.
The AI segment generated $2.56 billion last quarter – growing by 247%. It’s nearly three times larger than the entire rocket business. Compute capacity hit 1.4 gigawatts, up from 400 megawatts a year ago. SpaceX is now a compute company with a launch business attached.
Johnsen says new compute deployments pay back in under a year. That means the company plans to be cash flow positive on this capex spending very quickly.
The forward guidance was also incredibly positive.
Management pointed to a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December. And Elon Musk predicts that the company will grow 10x from there – hitting $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
Shares trade below the $135 IPO price. It’s down roughly 49% from its June high of $225.
The stock may continue to see some weakness in August.
On Thursday, August 6, up to 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors become eligible for sale. At recent prices that's about $116 billion of stock — larger than the entire current public float. Another 455.8 million shares free up around August 20.
These additional free trading shares increase the size of the “float.” It also means that these insiders will be able to sell stock and lock-in gains.
At $115, SPCX carries a market value near $1.5 trillion, about 39 times this year's consensus revenue. Wall Street sits at 23 buys, 6 holds and 2 sells. The average price target near $230.
Here’s my gameplan.
I like SpaceX in the low $100s. But I'm not buying shares after this earnings report. The reason is because we have $116 billion of SPCX stock coming free trading this week. Plus, even more tradeable shares coming into the market in two weeks.
I’m going to watch from the sidelines for the next few weeks – and see how the stock trades. I’m optimistic that the stock will bottom out and create a great entry point in the coming weeks.
The next few weeks of price action will tell you almost nothing about the business. This is all about share structure and the expiration of lockups.
Anthropic is already double the size of SpaceX – with annualized revenues estimated to be $71 billion. And now the company is preparing for a massive IPO – that could value the company at $3 trillion.
If you missed buying SpaceX before the IPO – you’ll want to check this out.
Here’s a link for my urgent briefing on the Anthropic and OpenAI Pre-IPOs.
Ian Wyatt
Editor, IPO Watch