Traders are placing big bets on the SpaceX IPO.
With just 2 weeks until the IPO prices – there’s lots of speculation. I’m not making risky bets. Instead, I’m securing a stake right before the SpaceX IPO.
Here's how to claim Pre-IPO shares before the listing.
Polymarket is one of the most popular prediction markets.
It allows people to bet on the outcome of future events — everything from elections to corporate deals. And right now, the SpaceX IPO is one of its most active markets.
More than $3.5 million has been wagered on a single contract: where SpaceX will close on its first day of trading.
Here's what the crowd is pricing in.
The market is currently sitting at a $2 trillion closing market cap.
Here’s a breakdown:
· 77% probability that SpaceX closes above $2 trillion
· 44% chance it closes above $2.4 trillion
· 14% chance it crosses the $3 trillion line on day one
The interesting move happened last week. The implied close dropped from above $2.2 trillion to $2 trillion — a $181 billion haircut in less than 10 days.
A separate market is pricing the size of the capital raise itself.
The $70 – $80 billion dollar bucket is leading with 40% odds. The next most likely outcome is 80–90 billion at 16%. Anything under 40 billion is sitting at just 11%.
That lines up almost exactly with the Bloomberg reporting that the SpaceX raise could reach $75 billion.
There's one more market worth watching.
Polymarket traders are giving a 44% chance that Tesla and SpaceX officially announce a merger by June 30. That compares with a 5% chance of an announcement by June 30.
That's a real number — and it's worth keeping an eye on as the IPO timeline gets closer.
Prediction markets aren't perfect. They can be thin on volume and noisy on short timeframes. But they aggregate the views of people with real money on the line. That tends to be more honest than what you'll read in most analyst reports.
Right now, the crowd is telling us three things. The IPO is happening. The raise will be massive. And a SpaceX-Tesla merger is basically a coin flip for 2026.
Go here for the SpaceX Pre-IPO instructions.
Ian Wyatt
Editor, IPO Watch