$3 trillion.
That’s the expected IPO valuation for Anthropic, according to one of tech's most respected investors.
Gavin Baker of Atreides Management made the call on a recent episode of the All-In Podcast. His exact words: Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today, and that's roughly where it would trade as a public company.
Consider what that means.
Anthropic closed its last funding round in May at a $965 billion valuation. Baker is saying the public market would pay 3x that number.
Here's his math.
Anthropic's revenue run-rate has already crossed $47 billion — up from $9 billion at the end of last year. Baker projects the company will finish 2026 with well over $100 billion in revenue. Looking out to 2028, he sees $200 – $300 billion.
The second number is the one most investors miss: margins.
As Anthropic's business shifts from training models to running them — what the industry calls inference — profitability improves dramatically. Baker cites reports of roughly 85% gross margins on inference. That's software-like economics at massive scale.
Put a 10x multiple on those future revenues — a figure Baker considers conservative — and you land in multi-trillion territory. That would put Anthropic in the same league as Apple and Nvidia.
The timing makes this call especially interesting.
Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO paperwork on June 1. That sets the company up for an IPO in a timeframe of October – December. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan are leading the offering. And the bankers expect it to raise more than $60 billion.
Baker's forecast assumes the revenue ramp continues without interruption. Competition from OpenAI, Google, and open-source models is real. Compute constraints could slow growth. And a 10x multiple on projected 2028 revenue requires the market to stay enthusiastic about AI for years.
The public S-1 will give us the audited numbers to test his thesis. When it drops, you'll hear about it here first.
Don’t wait for the Anthropic IPO.
Because you can invest now – less than 90 days before the Nasdaq listing. And I’m going to show you how.
Ian Wyatt
Editor, IPO Watch