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The prediction market Kalshi is now generating more than $2 billion in annualized revenue — roughly triple where it stood in November.
That number, first reported by The Information, has done something predictable: it's pulled Wall Street to the table.
The company’s executives have started holding informal conversations with investment banks about an eventual IPO.
Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange where people trade Yes/No contracts on real-world events — elections, Fed decisions, NBA games, the World Cup. Each contract settles between a penny and 99 cents, and pays out $1 if you're right.
The business model looks less like a sportsbook and more like a stock exchange. Kalshi charges a fee on trading volume — historically around 1.1% to 1.2% — and doesn't take the other side of your bet.
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Traders ran roughly $178 billion through the platform over the past year. In the first two weeks of June alone, Kalshi cleared $10 billion in volume — up from $435 million during the same stretch a year earlier.
The regulatory setup is the real moat. Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange, which means it can offer contracts across all 50 states without stitching together licenses state by state. Its main rival, Polymarket, runs mostly on crypto rails offshore.
Now for the part the headlines skip.
CEO Tarek Mansour went on CNBC and said plainly that no IPO is happening in 2026. The talks are early. Most reporting points to a listing date in 2027.
There's real risk here, too. Sports contracts make up around 70% of Kalshi's volume, and several states have sued, arguing it's running unlicensed sports gambling. Kalshi says the claims are meritless.
Instead of an IPO, the nearer-term event is a funding round. Kalshi is reportedly raising fresh capital at a roughly $40 billion valuation — nearly double the $22 billion mark it hit in May.
This is one of the fastest-scaling fintech stories I've covered, and the exchange economics are genuinely attractive. But "thinking about" an IPO and filing one are very different things. I'd watch the $40 billion round and a CFO hire as the signals that matter.
My team just unveiled a new AI Profit Predictor. It’s an innovative way to use AI to find trades with a high probability of profit. And it’s already delivering amazing results.
This includes +100% gains with Tesla, Freeport, Disney, Iron Mountain and Paramount since May 14. Plus, a 228% gain on Freeport on June 22.
That’s 6 triple digit winners in the last 60 days!
Ian Wyatt
Editor, IPO Watch